run dca-vs-lump-sum
DCA vs Lump Sum Simulator
Dollar-cost averaging against lump-sum investing across simulated market paths.
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Lump sum means investing all the money on day one. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) means splitting it into equal chunks invested over several months instead, while the rest sits in cash waiting its turn. This tool runs thousands of simulated markets with the same random ups and downs applied to both approaches, then shows how often each one ends up ahead and by how much.Lump-sum win rate
53%
of simulated paths, lump sum ≥ DCA at horizon
Lump sum, median ending value
$70,298
DCA, median ending value
$69,141
Lump sum came out ahead in 53% of simulated paths, beating dca by a median of $1,157 after 5 years.
Lump sum, P10-P90Lump sumDCA
View as table
| Year | Lump sum (median) | DCA (median) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | $50,000 | $50,000 |
| 1 | $52,458 | $52,436 |
| 2 | $57,679 | $56,768 |
| 3 | $60,622 | $60,283 |
| 4 | $65,488 | $64,554 |
| 5 | $70,298 | $69,141 |
Methodology & assumptions
- Returns follow a simplified geometric Brownian motion (constant drift and volatility) — not real market behavior, which has fat tails and regime shifts.
- Both strategies are simulated against the same random market path per trial so the comparison isolates entry timing, not luck.
- Uninvested DCA cash is assumed to earn a fixed annual yield while waiting to be deployed.
- No taxes, fees, or transaction costs are modeled.